BUBBLE? - Nowhere in Sight for US Housing Market

Oct. 24, 2017 – U.S. housing markets are expected to remain healthy through at least the end of 2018, with no housing bubble in sight and no projection of home prices falling, according to the Fall 2017 edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), released by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company.

The HaMMR features the Arch MI Risk Index, a statistical model based on recent housing market indicators. The index suggests that over the next two years, the probability of home price declines in America's 401 largest cities averages just 4 percent – an unusually low number.

"People waiting for home prices to fall before buying may want to change their strategy, as the overall housing market is expected to stay strong for the foreseeable future," says Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Global Chief Economist, Mortgage Services of Arch Capital Services Inc. "Our research shows no housing bubble is forming in the United States, with prices overall near historic norms compared to incomes."

The HaMMR also finds that some recent concern about U.S. home prices hitting all-time highs is overblown because, after adjusting for inflation, national home prices are still 10 percent below their prior peak.

© 2017 Florida Realtors  

Locally...

I see prices moving up but some areas (developments) are slower than others.  Appreciation of new homes is much stronger than homes that are 10 years and older.  Relocating retirees and medical personnel find our area appealing because if they come from a northern housing market that is more expensive so prices look reasonable here.  Builders know this trend will continue and this is why we see so many new developments in east Manatee County